JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

In the past few decades, liver disease has gradually become one of the major causes of death and illness worldwide. Hepatitis is one of the most common liver diseases in China, and the burden of liver disease in China is also soaring. There have been intermittent and epidemic outbreaks of hepatitis worldwide, with a tendency towards cyclical recurrences. This periodicity poses challenges to epidemic prevention and control.

Objective:

In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between the periodic characteristics of the hepatitis epidemic and local meteorological elements in Guangdong, China, which is a representative province with the largest population and GDP in China.

Methods:

Time series datasets from January 2013 to December 2020 for four notifiable infectious diseases caused by hepatitis viruses (HAV, HBV, HCV, and HEV) and monthly data of meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation, humidity) were used in this study. Power spectrum analysis was conducted on time series data, and regression and correlation analysis were performed to assess the relationship between epidemics and meteorological elements.

Results:

The four hepatitis epidemics showed clear periodic phenomena in the eight-year dataset, as well as those of meteorological elements. Based on the regression and correlation analysis, precipitation did not contribute to the hepatitis epidemics. The hepatitis A, B, and C epidemics in Guangdong were strongly correlated with temperature, while hepatitis E epidemic was strongly correlated with humidity.

Conclusions:

Our study investigates the periodic phenomena of hepatitis epidemics and their relationship with the local meteorological elements in a representative province in China. These findings will provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying hepatitis and could give guidance to local governments for prevention measures and policies.