JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

In China, tuberculosis is still a major public health problem, and the incidence of tuberculosis has significant spatial heterogeneity.

Objective:

This study aimed to investigate the temporal trends and spatial patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis in the low-epidemic area of eastern China at Wuxi city from 2005–2020.

Methods:

The data of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from 2005 to 2020 were obtained from Tuberculosis Information Management System. The joinpoint regression model was used to identify the changes in the secular temporal trend. Kernel density analysis and Hot spot analysis were used to explore the spatial distribution characteristics and the clusters of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence rate.

Results:

A total of 37,592 cases were registered during 2005-2020, with an average annual incidence rate of 34.62 per 100,000. The population over 60 years old had the highest incidence rate of 59.00 per 100,000. In the study period, the incidence rate decreased from 50.35 to 23.86 per 100,000 populations, with an average annual percent change of -4.9% (95%CI, -6.8% to -2.9%). The incidence rate of pathogenic positive patients was increased during 2017-2020, with an annual percent change of 13.4% (95%CI, 4.3% to 23.2%). The tuberculosis cases were mainly concentrated in the city center, and the incidence of hot spots areas gradually changed from rural areas to urban areas during the study period.

Conclusions:

The pulmonary tuberculosis incidence rate in Wuxi city has been declining rapidly with the effective implementation of strategies and projects. The populated urban centers will become key areas of tuberculosis prevention and control, especially in the elderly population.