JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Face masks mandates have been instrumental in the reduction of transmission of airborne COVID-19. Thus, the question arises whether comparatively mild measures should be kept in place after the pandemic to reduce other air borne disease such as influenza.

Objective:

In this study, we aimed to simulate the quantitative impact of face masks on the rate of influenza illnesses in the United States.

Methods:

Using Center for Disease Control (CDC) data from 2010-2019, we employed a series of differential equations to simulate past influenza seasons, assuming that people wore face masks. This was achieved by introducing a variable to account for the efficacy and prevalence of masks and then analyzing its impact on influenza transmission rate in a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model fit to the actual past seasons. We then compared influenza rates in this hypothetical scenario with the actual rates over the seasons.

Results:

Our results show that several combinations of mask efficacy and prevalence can significantly reduce the burden of seasonal influenza. The data shows that, mask prevalence of 0.2 and assumed moderate inward and outward mask efficacy of 0.45 greatly reduced influenza infections by > 90% over several past seasons. Also, mask prevalence of 0.5 with efficacy of 0.35 led to > 95% reduction in influenza illnesses across seasons.

Conclusions:

A minority of individuals wearing masks greatly reduce the number of influenza infections across seasons. Considering the efficacy rates of masks and the relatively insignificant monetary cost, we highlight that it may be a viable complement to influenza vaccinations.