JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Although the studies of surveillance and epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) notified to the Chinese CDC Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS) are much more, few assessment studies of control strategies have been performed.

Objective:

As a high incidence region of TB, following the nationwide prevention and control strategies, Henan province has implemented a series of measures. The study aimed to evaluate the impact of these intervention combinations on the epidemiological changes and the achievement to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2025 goal.

Methods:

We used descriptive statistical methods to show the spatial and temporal distribution of reported PTB to TBIMS database from 2005 to 2018, and logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of bacteriological positive TB. The dynamic compartmental model was adopted to estimate the burden of TB under the impact of different TB control policies.

Results:

In total, 976,526 PTB cases were notified to the TBIMS in Henan during 14 years. Although the overall incidence of PTB and bacteriological-positive PTB declined from 91.4/105 to 58.5/105, and 44.5/105 to 14.7/105, respectively, they could not still meet the goal. The distribution of high incidence and poverty-stricken counties were basically overlapped. Men, Farmers and herdsmen (in rural areas), and ≥60 age groups were more likely to develop bacteriological-positive PTB. The increasing treatment success for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) would not bring the distinct reduction in incidence and mortality.

Conclusions:

It was high effective to assess control strategies based on TBIMS. To achieve staged goal, while improving the cure rate of TB, the new strategies, active, not passive, finding and intervening, should be formulated based on epidemiological characteristics in Henan Province.