JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and its impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages when incoming information is sparse and isolated, in order to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation.

Objective:

To develop a web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO), available at https://aido.bsvgateway.org that uses historical outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak.

Methods:

We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic. The four major steps involved in developing this tool were 1) collection of historic outbreak data and preparation of the representative library, 2) development of AIDO algorithms, 3) development of user interface & associated visuals, and 4) verification & validation.

Results:

The tool currently includes representative historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 600 diverse outbreaks. AIDO uses a variety of analytics to compare user data to historical outbreaks and provide situational awareness. These include a similarity algorithm, short-term forecasting, and anomalous event detection. The web-interface also facilitates outbreak comparison, browsing the library, and related outbreaks with additional visuals/functionalities.

Conclusions:

AIDO is a decision support tool that facilitates increased situational awareness during an unfolding outbreak and enables informed decisions on mitigation strategies. AIDO is valuable to epidemiologists, especially those in resource-poor regions of the world due to the ease of access and no-cost. We present a new approach to applying historical outbreak data to provide actionable information during the early stages of an unfolding infectious disease outbreak.