Previously submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (no longer under consideration since Mar 05, 2024)
Date Submitted: Oct 29, 2023
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of gallbladder and biliary diseases in mainland China: past trends and future prediction
ABSTRACT
Background:
China is the country with the most gallbladder and biliary diseases (GBDs) deaths.
Objective:
The objective of this study was to analyze long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of GBDs in mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to make projections until 2030.
Methods:
Data on GBDs were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Population data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in this study.
Results:
The net drift of GBDs incidence was 0.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 1.00%) for men and 1.29% (95% CI: 1.22%, 1.35%) for women. The net drift for mortality was -1.57% (95% CI: -1.81%, -1.34%) -5.12% (95% CI: -5.38%, -4.86%) for men and -3.32% (95% CI: -3.55%, -3.10%) -6.90% (95% CI: -7.28%, -6.52%) for women. The risk of GBDs increased in the last 20 years in males but decreased in the last 5 years in females, and the risk of GBDs increased with birth cohort progression in females and in males after 2005. For mortality, both period and cohort effects showed a favorable trend (the mortality risk decreased). It is expected that the past trend in terms of increased incidence in males and decreased mortality for both sexes will continue, but the incidence of GBDs in females is expected to decrease in the future. An increasing proportion of elderly individuals are expected to develop GBDs and die.
Conclusions:
In the past three decades, the incidence of GBDs has increased in both sexes, and the mortality rate has decreased. Except for the decreased incidence in females, the past trends will continue in the next decades. A higher proportion of elderly individuals are projected to suffer GBDs and die, thus GBDs in elderly individuals should receive more attention. Clinical Trial: Trial registration is not applicable in this study.
Citation
Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.
Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.