Previously submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (no longer under consideration since Jan 10, 2024)
Date Submitted: Oct 21, 2023
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Thyroid Cancer Trend in China and The G20 Countries: A Comprehensive Analysis and 20-Year Prognostic ModeI
ABSTRACT
Background:
Thyroid cancer is a leading type of endocrine cancer. Although research has explored thyroid cancer patterns in China, there remains a notable lack of comparative studies between China and other countries. This comparative approach is essential for a holistic understanding of global thyroid cancer patterns and to assess the effectiveness of various medical treatments worldwide.
Objective:
This study aims to analyze and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the G20, and predict the trend for the upcoming two decades.
Methods:
Data was sourced from the GBD Study 2019. Thyroid cancer trends were examined using metrics such as incidence, mortality, MIR, ASR and AAPC. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between SDI and AAPC were investigated. The ARIMA model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040.
Results:
From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence in China increased by 289.63%, with a higher AAPC of ASIR in males. Contrastingly, a relatively lower increase was found in the G20, particularly in females aged over 50. Despite ASMR was higher in the G20, the rise in mortality cases was lower compared to China. ASIR increased across all age groups and genders, especially among males aged 15-49. ASMR decreased across genders and specific age groups, especially in females. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, yet the decline was less pronounced among males and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictive data indicated a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high BMI escalated, with the significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.41% in China in 2019.
Conclusions:
Thyroid cancer incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasize the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in tackling the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer. Clinical Trial: No needs
Citation
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