Previously submitted to: JMIR Nursing (no longer under consideration since Jun 12, 2026)
Date Submitted: Nov 1, 2023
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Validated Prediction Models of Nursing Home Utilization: A Scoping Review
ABSTRACT
Background:
There is a growing need to accurately anticipate and respond to various risks associated with care for older adults. There is a lack of risk prediction models developed and validated in the nursing home setting.
Objective:
This review was conducted to scope and synthesize the existing evidence on the validated prediction models in nursing home setting.
Methods:
PRISMA guideline extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR) were used for study selection. PubMed and CINAHL databases were used to retrieve the studies. Articles published to Sep 30, 2023, were included.
Results:
A total of 17 papers were selected for final inclusion in this review. Outcomes of interest were hospitalization, fall, fall-related injury or fracture, NH related infection, pressure Injury, delirium, and mortality. Validation methods included internal validation(bootstrapping) and external validation calibration and discrimination). Reported C-statistics ranged from 0.6 to 0.8. MDS was mostly used as data source.
Conclusions:
Nursing Homes are environments that can implement various prevention strategies to reduce the risk of deterioration in activities of daily living (ADLs) other than death, including fall-related injuries and fractures. Future research is needed to design and implement more personalized prevention strategies including considerations on pre-placement factors, quality of nursing home care, and risk scores calculated by validated prediction models.
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