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Date Submitted: Jul 15, 2021
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Peter Chew Formula for maximum positive rate based on Covid19 mutant
ABSTRACT
Background:
A higher positive rate indicates that a country has more undetected covid-19 carriers. Every country needs to increase their testing to minimize the positive rate. By increasing the covid-19 test to detect more undetected covid-19 carriers and isolate them to prevent them from infecting others, thereby reducing the number of undetected covid-19 carriers in the country. Since the new covid-19 mutants usually have a higher transmission rate, the maximum positive rate must be lower to ensure that the undetected virus covid-19 carriers are low and the country is controlled
Objective:
Since different countries have different covid-19 mutants, different covid-19 mutants have different levels of transmission. Therefore, each country must have a specific maximum positive rate based on its country’s covid-19 mutant. So, a general formula must be created to determine the maximum positive rate for each country based on its country’s covid-19 mutant.
Methods:
According to criteria published by World Health Organization (WHO) in May 2020, a positive rate of less than 5% covid-19 test is one indicator that the epidemic is under control in a country and the maximum positive rate is inversely proportional to the transmission rate of the covid-19 mutant. By using inversely proportional method, we get P_max= = x/(〖20 (T〗_mutant)) , where P_max=Maximum Positive rate, T_mutant= Transmission mutation covid-19 and x = transmission rate mutant as of may 2020.
Results:
By using the Peter Chew formula to calculate the maximum positive rate of Covid-19 mutants, P_max = x/(〖20 (T〗_mutant)) , each country can calculate a more specific country maximum positive rate, based on Covid -19 Mutation detection in their country. In addition, if a country finds a new highly infectious covid-19 mutant. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that a covid-19 positive rate of less than 5% is not suitable for the mentioned country. For example, if a new highly infectious Covid-19 mutant is detected in some countries, it is 10 times more infectious than the Beta variant. By using Peter Chew’s formula to calculate the maximum positive rate of Covid-19 mutants, we can calculate the maximum positive rate for that particular country, which is 0.5%.
Conclusions:
By using Peter Chew’s formula, the maximum positive rate in each country is determined based on the covid-19 mutants in each country. In addition to providing a suitable maximum positive rate for each country, it can also prevent "policy makers" in certain countries from continuing to use the wrong maximum positive rate for new mutants because they have not updated the latest information, resulting in countries continuing to maintain a high infection rate.
Citation
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