Previously submitted to: JMIRx Med (no longer under consideration since Feb 22, 2021)
Date Submitted: Aug 31, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Aug 31, 2020 - Oct 26, 2020
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COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling
ABSTRACT
Background:
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results.
Objective:
This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations.
Methods:
The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented.
Results:
Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced.
Conclusions:
We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.
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