Previously submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (no longer under consideration since Jun 30, 2020)
Date Submitted: Jun 10, 2020
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Temporal evolution of COVID-19 in the states of India using SIQR Model
ABSTRACT
Background:
COVID 19 entered during the last week of April 2020 in India has caused 3,546 deaths with 1,13,321 number of reported cases. Indian government has taken many proactive steps, including strict lockdown of the entire nation for more than 50 days, identification of hotspots, app-based tracking of citizens to track infected.
Objective:
This paper investigated the evolution of COVID 19 in five states of India (Maharashtra, UP, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi) from 1st April 2020 to 20th May 2020
Methods:
Variation of doubling rate and reproduction number (from SIQR) with time is used to analyse the performance of the majorly affected Indian states
Results:
. It has been determined that Uttar Pradesh is one of the best performers among five states with the doubling rate crossing 18 days as of 20th May. Tamil Nadu has witnessed the second wave of infections during the second week of May. Maharashtra is continuously improving at a steady rate with its doubling rate reaching to 12.67 days. Also these two states are performing below the national average in terms of infection doubling rate. Gujrat and Delhi have reported the doubling rate of 16.42 days and 15.49 days respectively. Comparison of these states has also been performed based on time-dependent reproduction number. Recovery rate of India has reached to 40 % as the day paper is written.
Conclusions:
All the three major contributing states of India as improving slowly. Tamil Nadu witnessed the second peak during mid of May, Maharasthra alongwith Tamil Nadu is performing below the national average. This kind of analysis can be useful for the analysis of evolution of COVID 19 among different states of India.
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