JMIR Publications

ABSTRACT

Background:

As the number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise and hospitals are experiencing personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages, healthcare workers have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 infection. Since COVID-19 testing is now available, some have raised the question of whether we should be routinely testing asymptomatic healthcare workers.

Objective:

To model the impact of periodic COVID-19 testing among healthcare workers in regions moderately impacted by COVID-19

Methods:

Using publicly available data on COVID-19 infections and emergency department visits, as well as internal hospital staffing information, we generated a mathematical model to predict the impact of periodic COVID-19 testing in asymptomatic members of the emergency department staff in regions affected by COVID-19 infection. We calculated various transmission constants based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship data, used a logistic model to calculate new infections, and we created a Markov model according to average COVID-19 incubation time.

Results:

Our model predicts that after 30 days, with a transmission constant of 1.219e-4 new infections per person2, weekly COVID-19 testing of healthcare workers (HCW) would reduce new HCW and patient infections by 5.1% and bi-weekly testing would reduce both by 2.3%. At a transmission constant of 3.660e-4 new infections per person,2 weekly testing would reduce infections by 21.1% and bi-weekly testing would reduce infections by 9.7-9.8%. For a lower transmission constant of 4.067e-5 new infections per person2, weekly and biweekly HCW testing would result in a 1.54% and 0.7% reduction in infections respectively.

Conclusions:

Periodic COVID-19 testing for emergency department staff in regions that are heavily-affected by COVID-19 and/or facing resource constraints may reduce COVID-19 transmission significantly among healthcare workers and previously-uninfected patients.