Previously submitted to: Journal of Medical Internet Research (no longer under consideration since Jun 29, 2020)
Date Submitted: May 10, 2020
Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Containment efficiency and covid19 economic scenarios: the case of Morocco
ABSTRACT
Background:
In the present paper we are interested in the epidemiological evolution of Covid19 in Morocco and we try to simulate the possible trajectories of the contagion. The objective of this research is to model the economic consequences of the epidemic and also to highlight the importance of the containment policy in facilitating economic recovery in Morocco. The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Objective:
In the present paper we are interested in the epidemiological evolution of Covid19 in Morocco and we try to simulate the possible trajectories of the contagion. The objective of this research is to model the economic consequences of the epidemic and also to highlight the importance of the containment policy in facilitating economic recovery in Morocco. The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Methods:
In the present paper we are interested in the epidemiological evolution of Covid19 in Morocco and we try to simulate the possible trajectories of the contagion. The objective of this research is to model the economic consequences of the epidemic and also to highlight the importance of the containment policy in facilitating economic recovery in Morocco. The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Results:
The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Conclusions:
The results obtained using a combination of Ramsey's model and the epidemiological propagation model affirm that the choice of the containment policy made it possible to reduce the negative repercussions of the pandemic on Morocco, despite the economic consequences of the latter. The comparisons made between the two situations confirm that the economic repercussions remain moderate and Morocco will be able to face this disaster with even stricter or even more intelligent containment.
Citation
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Copyright
© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.