Previously submitted to: JMIR Formative Research (no longer under consideration since Sep 30, 2020)
Date Submitted: May 7, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: May 7, 2020 - Jun 26, 2020
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Significantly longer Covid-19 incubation times for the elderly from a case study of 136 patients throughout China
ABSTRACT
Background:
Incubation time distributed of Covid-19 is information needed as a matter of urgency for all age groups.
Objective:
To infer Covid-19 incubation time distribution from a large sample.
Methods:
Based on individual case data published online by 21 cities of China, we investigated a total of 136 COVID-19 patients who traveled to Hubei from 21 cities of China between January 5 and January 31, 2020, remained there for 48 hours or less, and returned to these cities with onset of symptoms between January 10 and February 6, 2020. Among these patients, 110 were found to be aged 15 – 64, 22 aged 65 – 86, and 4 aged under 15.
Results:
The differential incubation time histogram of the two age groups 15 – 64 and 65 – 86 are adequately fitted by the log normal model. For the 15 - 64 age group, the median incubation time of 7.00 + 1.10 - 0.90 days (uncertainties are 95 % CL) is broadly consistent with previous literature. For the 65-86 age group, the median is 10.9 + 2.7 -2.0 days is statistically significantly longer. Moreover, for this group, the 95 % confidence contour indicates the data cannot constrain the upper bound of the log normal parameters µ, σ by failing to close there; this is because the sample has a maximum incubation time of 17 days, beyond which we ran out of data even though the histogram has not yet peaked.
Conclusions:
Thus the incubation time for the 65-86 age group is much longer than the 10 – 14 days of the main adult group. Only a much larger sample can clinch this number further.
Citation
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