Accepted for/Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research
Date Submitted: Apr 22, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Apr 22, 2020 - Jun 17, 2020
Date Accepted: Apr 5, 2021
Date Submitted to PubMed: Apr 26, 2021
(closed for review but you can still tweet)
Age-stratified Infection Probabilities Combined with Quarantine-Modified SEIR Model in the Needs Assessments for COVID-19
ABSTRACT
Background:
We use the age-stratified COVID-19 infection and death distributions from China (more than 44,672 infectious as of February 11, 2020) as an estimate for a study area infection and morbidity probabilities at each age group.
Objective:
We then apply these probabilities into the actual age-stratified population to predict infectious individuals and deaths at peak. Testing with different countries shows the predicted infectious skewing with the country median age and age stratification, as expected.
Methods:
We added a Q parameter to the classic SEIR compartmental model to include the effect of quarantine (Q-SEIR).
Results:
The projections from the age-stratified probabilities give much lower predicted incidences of infection than the Q-SEIR model. As expected, quarantine tends to delay the peaks for both Exposed and Infectious and to flatten the curve or lower the predicted values for each compartment.
Conclusions:
These two estimates were used as a range to inform planning and response to the COVID-19 threat.
Citation
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