Previously submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (no longer under consideration since Apr 07, 2020)
Date Submitted: Apr 6, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Apr 6, 2020 - Apr 7, 2020
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Mathematical Predictions for Covid-19 as a Global Pandemic
ABSTRACT
The model equations which exhibits the disease-free equilibrium (E_0 ) state for COVID-19 coronavirus does not exist and hence does not satisfy the criteria for a locally or globally asymptotic stability when the basic reproductive number R_0=1 for and endemic situation. This implies that the COVID-19 coronavirus does not have a curative vaccine yet and precautionary measures are advised through quarantine and observatory procedures. The basic reproductive number was found to be R_0<1 and hence shows that there is a chance of decline of secondary infections when the ratio between the incidence rate in the population and the total number of infected population quarantined with observatory procedure. Furthermore, numerical simulations were carried to complement the analytical results in investigating the effect of the implementation of quarantine and observatory procedures has on the projection of the further spread of the virus globally. Result shows that the proportion of infected population in the absence of curative vaccination will continue to grow globally meanwhile the recovery rate will continue slowly which therefore means that the ratio of infection to recovery rate will determine the death rate that is recorded globally. Therefore, the effort to evaluate the disease equilibrium shows that unless there is a dedicated effort from individual population, government, health organizations, policy makers and stakeholders, the world would hardly be reed of the COVID-19 coronavirus and further spread is eminent and the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery until a curative vaccine is developed.
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